If you’ve ever wondered who might win the 2028 election if Barack Obama and Donald Trump went head-to-head, then AI has quite the unexpected answer.
As the constitution stands, a president can only be elected into office twice.
With President Trump currently serving his second term in office as we speak, it’s no secret that he’s floated the idea of running again in 2028 – despite what the rules might say.
Another former president who many are eager to see the return of is Obama, who has also been in office twice already – between 2009 and 2017.
So while the conversation around who would win seems futile – given the constitutional limits that make such a rematch highly unlikely – it hasn’t stopped people from imagining how it might play out…
2024 election
It’s safe to say that the 2024 US election was one of the most intense and polarizing contests in modern American history.
For a start, the current President Trump survived a horrifying assassination attempt on July 13.
At a campaign rally near Butler, Pennsylvania, a gunman opened fire with a rifle while the President was speaking.
To the surprise of just about everyone on the planet, the bullet struck Trump only in the upper right ear, and he recovered swiftly with limited injuries.
The gunman, later identified as Thomas Matthew Crooks, fired at Trump from a nearby rooftop.
But it wasn’t the only shocking incident to occur during the campaign.
During this time, after initially running for re-election, Joe Biden withdrew from the race in July following mounting pressure within the Democratic Party.
The Democratic nominee ultimately became Kamala Harris, who went on to run against Trump.
But we all know how the story goes, Trump is elected for a second time, with his inaugaration held in January 2025.
Ever-evolving opinions
While it sometimes feels like America is truly split down the middle, especially where recent controversies are concerned, the polls have been constantly changing throughout Trump’s second term.
Put simply as of early 2026, most Americans are not very happy with how Trump’s second term is going.
Overall approval ratings are low, with only about one-third of Americans saying they approve of his performance, while roughly two-thirds disapprove.
People are especially unhappy with how he’s handling the economy and immigration, with approval on those issues dropping to record lows.
While Republicans are still generally behind him, there is some recovery to be done before the next election – one thing’s for sure.
Many are worried about the capacity of the President, with some alleging that he is showing early signs of serious illness.
Speaking with The Guardian, psychologist John Gartner said: “What we see are the classic signs of dementia, which is gross deterioration from someone’s baseline and function.
“If you go back and look at film from the 1980s, [Trump] actually was extremely articulate.
“Now he really has trouble completing a thought and that is a huge deterioration.”
Trump vs Obama – what is AI’s verdict?
Before we dive into this, there is an important caveat.
This scenario is purely hypothetical, given that both presidents are currently barred from running again under the US Constitution.
But nevertheless, what’s the verdict, you may ask?
Recent polling shows President Trump’s approval rating generally below 45% and often under 40 percent.
Historically, Obama has a relatively strong post-presidency approval – often higher than many other recent presidents at similar points after leaving office.
Past data shows Obama leaving office with a 59 percent approval rate, much lower than Trump’s numbers in 2021.
So here’s the real deal – if Obama and Trump somehow were eligible and ran head-to-head in 2028, many current polls suggest Obama would likely have the edge, often by a double-digit margin in national surveys.
However, this is not a prediction of an actual election outcome – it’s a snapshot of current public opinion under highly hypothetical conditions.
Is it an outcome you’d be happy with?
