Certain citizens would be drafted if the US went to war – here’s everything you need to know.
Amid escalating global tensions surrounding President Donald Trump, polls show people are feeling concerned about WWIII.
If the United States were to reinstate the military draft, the Selective Service System would activate a process unused since 1973.
What is a military draft?
The idea of a military draft feels outdated to some, but it is still very real – understanding who would be drafted, who would be safe, and how the process works can help separate fact from panic.
The US military draft is overseen by the Selective Service System, a government agency that exists purely as a backup plan, per the Mirror.
Following congressional authorization and presidential approval, a national lottery would publicly determine the order in which registered individuals receive induction notices.
Those selected report to a Military Entrance Processing Station for physical, mental, and moral evaluations.
Not everyone who receives a notice will serve—many would be deferred, exempted, or found unsuitable.
The system allows individuals to file for deferments based on hardship, education, critical occupations, or conscientious objection.
The US has not used a draft since the Vietnam War, but the system has never gone away. Instead, it remains active so it can be used quickly if a major war overwhelms the volunteer military.
Current tensions
The global landscape in early 2026 presents multiple flashpoints.
The war in Ukraine continues into its fourth year, creating what analysts describe as the most dangerous East-West confrontation since the Cold War.
Tensions between the United States and China remain elevated over Taiwan, while the Middle East continues to simmer with conflicts showing few signs of resolution.
Nuclear concerns add another layer of anxiety, with Russia testing advanced weapons systems and arms control treaties breaking down.
Cyberattacks on critical infrastructure have increased, while AI and autonomous weapons are changing conflict dynamics.
Congress recently approved automatic Selective Service registration beginning late 2026, the largest change to draft law since 1980.
Public anxiety about a third world war has reached levels not seen in decades.
A YouGov survey found that 41-55% of Western Europeans believe another world war is likely within 5-10 years, with 45% of Americans sharing this concern. Between 68-76% expect that such a conflict would involve nuclear weapons.
Likelihood of war?
Security analysts have offered measured but concerning assessments about the probability of major conflict, Sky News reports.
Historian and former US diplomat Philip Zelikow assigned a 20 to 30 percent probability to ‘worldwide warfare’ in a Texas National Security Review article, warning of a period of maximum danger within the next one to three years.
The Council on Foreign Relations’ 2026 Preventive Priorities Survey identified several high-likelihood, high-impact contingencies that could affect US interests.
It notes that the risk of great power war persists, with contingencies such as a Taiwan Strait crisis and Russia-NATO clashes given a significant probability of occurring.
However, experts consistently stress that a draft would be an absolute last resort.
The US maintains one of the world’s largest all-volunteer forces, and modern conflicts rely on technology and precision weapons rather than massive troop numbers.
Draft preparedness serves more as a deterrent than a signal that conscription is imminent.
Who would be safe from the draft?
Several categories of people would be exempt or receive special consideration during any draft.
Women remain exempt from Selective Service registration, as no law has made registration mandatory despite their service in virtually all military roles.
Individuals with medical or mental health conditions, including chronic illnesses, disabilities, and serious psychological issues, would likely be deferred or exempted entirely.
Conscientious objectors who oppose war on moral or religious grounds may apply for special status and be assigned alternative service like healthcare work rather than combat.
Full-time students have historically received deferments, particularly those close to completing degrees.
Workers in critical occupations such as healthcare workers, engineers, cybersecurity specialists, and AI experts might be redirected into defense-related support roles rather than combat positions.
Parents and primary caregivers may qualify for hardship deferments based on individual circumstances, while certain officials and veterans—including ordained ministers, some elected officials, and those who’ve already served—are generally less likely to be conscripted.
Who would be first to be drafted?
Those whose 20th birthday falls during the lottery year would be called first, the SSS explains.
If insufficient, the system expands to ages 21, 22, 23, 24, and 25. Only after exhausting ages 20-25 would it move to 19-year-olds, then those 18 and a half.
All male US citizens and male immigrants ages 18-25 must register within 30 days of their 18th birthday, regardless of immigration status.
Failure to register is a federal felony with fines up to $250,000 and five years in prison.
Beginning late 2026, registration shifts to automatic enrollment using federal databases, per SSS.
Being registered doesn’t mean automatic induction, each person would undergo full evaluation, and many would receive deferments or exemptions. The lottery ensures randomness within each age cohort.
