{"id":1221,"date":"2026-07-19T00:17:41","date_gmt":"2026-07-19T00:17:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thejoeroganpod.com\/?p=1221"},"modified":"2026-07-19T00:17:41","modified_gmt":"2026-07-19T00:17:41","slug":"person-asks-ai-to-predict-who-will-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election-and-gets-unexpected-answer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thejoeroganpod.com\/?p=1221","title":{"rendered":"Person Asks AI To Predict Who Will Win The 2028 US Presidential Election And Gets Unexpected Answer"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

A person asked AI who would win the 2028\u00a0US\u00a0presidential election \u2013 and the answer may surprise you.<\/strong><\/p>\n

AI has been predicting who the next President of the United States will be.<\/p>\n

An incredibly dystopian sentence to read, isn\u2019t it?<\/p>\n

Given that it often feels as if we are living through a simulation of some sort nowadays, the fact that AI is being utilized to predict who will be the next \u2018leader of the free\u00a0world\u2019 feels sort of appropriate. As mind-numbing as that may seem.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s second term, so far<\/h2>\n

With\u00a0Donald Trump\u00a0just over a year into his second term in the White House, all eyes are beginning to fixate on the midterm elections in November.<\/p>\n

At the moment, the Republican outlook for the midterms is not a rosy one. The elections will determine which political party controls Congress, which in turn affects how easy it is for a President to pass laws.<\/p>\n

Coming at roughly the mid-point of a presidency, midterms also tend to represent a more settled opinion of an administration, with the public\u2019s opinions of a President ordinarily less likely to shift after two years in charge.<\/p>\n

For Trump and his MAGA movement within the Republican Party, there seems to be a lot of work to do to sway public opinion and the opinions of some disillusioned followers, following a series of high-profile controversies in recent months.<\/p>\n

\"Donald
The President has faced a series of high-profile controversies in recent months. Credit: Alamy<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The President has appalled many Americans, among them some ardent followers, with a video he shared to Truth Social which included a racist clip depicting Barack and Michelle Obama as monkeys. While the video was eventually deleted, no apology was offered and Trump shifted the blame for its posting onto a White House staffer.<\/p>\n

On top of this, Trump has alienated many NATO allies with his threats to annex Greenland using military force. A trade war with several ally nations was only narrowly avoided recently, with Trump threatening to place substantial tariffs on countries who attempted to stand in his way of acquiring Greenland.<\/p>\n

While in Minnesota, the killings of 37-year-old mother Renee Good and 37-year-old intensive care nurse Alex Pretti at the hands of ICE and border patrol agents have seen the current administration\u2019s tactics towards immigration come under intense scrutiny, drawing furious backlash and protests across the country.<\/p>\n

Opinion polls provide worrying reading for Trump<\/h2>\n

While Trump may dismiss them as fake, a recent AP-NORC poll from January found that just\u00a0four in 10 US adults approved of the President\u2019s performance\u00a0during his second term, so far.<\/p>\n

The poll states that, as of January 8, 2026, 59% of US adults disapprove of the way POTUS is handling the country. On the other hand, 40% do approve of Trump\u2019s performance.<\/p>\n

\"Donald
Approval ratings for Donald Trump\u2019s second term as President have been revealed. Credit: Alamy<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Perhaps of most concern for Trump and his followers, given how strongly he ran on bolstering the US economy during the 2024 election, only 37% of American adults approve of Trump\u2019s handling of the economy, with 62% disapproving. Similarly, only 38% approve of his performance related to immigration with 37% approving of his foreign policy and trade negotiations.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, a New York Times\/Siena College\u00a0poll\u00a0showed that nearly 50% of American voters said that their\u00a0life\u00a0was worse off than it was four years ago. The same poll also shows that 64% of voters say Trump has mismanaged efforts to handle the cost of living.<\/p>\n

Who does AI predict will be running for election in 2028?<\/h2>\n

YouTube channel\u00a0Election Time<\/em>\u00a0used\u00a0Elon Musk\u2019s resident AI bot Grok to forecast the 2028 election and produce a full Electoral College map.<\/p>\n

The channel\u2019s prompt proposed a hypothetical race between current US Vice President JD Vance \u2013 who many have tipped to follow in Trump\u2019s footsteps towards the Oval Office \u2013 and former Vice President Kamala Harris, who was the Democratic candidate in 2024.<\/p>\n

In the video, everything from early primary polling to betting markets and state-by-state projections is covered.<\/p>\n

Harris polls highest for Democrats with 32% support, ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom (23.8%) and former US Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg (10%).<\/p>\n

On the Republican side, Vance comfortably dominates proceedings for the GOP with 49.2% of the vote, 29 points ahead of Donald Trump Jr. and even further ahead of Marco Rubio (12.5%) and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (9.2%).<\/p>\n

Who wins the AI generation 2028 US presidential election?<\/h2>\n

In Grok\u2019s simulation, states that are considered to be strong favorites for Vance are Utah, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, except its second district, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Indiana, South Carolina, and Ohio.<\/p>\n

Harris, meanwhile, is projected to win Washington, California, Hawaii, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, the District of Columbia, and Maine\u2019s first district by at least 15 points.<\/p>\n

Connecticut and Delaware heading Harris\u2019 way by solid margins would be a marked improvement on the former Vice President\u2019s 2024 performance. However, Vance carrying the Buckeye state of Ohio, a perennial battleground state that often goes the way of the victor, feels extremely significant.<\/p>\n

\"Kamala
Kamala Harris, the 49th vice president of the US, ran for the presidency in 2024. Credit: Alamy<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

With both sets of \u2018solid states\u2019 decided, Vance holds the Electoral College lead 139 -108.<\/p>\n

Grok also then predicts Vance to win the \u2018likely\u2019 states of Iowa, North Carolina, Florida, Texas, Arizona, Alaska, and Maine\u2019s second district.<\/p>\n

This performance leaves Vance just 24 electoral votes shy of the 270 required for the Presidency. Harris\u2019 likely states include Oregon, Colorado, New Mexico, Illinois, New York,\u00a0 Maine statewide, Rhode Island and Virginia.<\/p>\n

Grok does forecast that Nevada and Georgia will remain red states in 2028, as well as the trio of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. In the video, the three states\u2019 history of voting the same way is spotlighted, and they are expected to do so again in two-and-a-half years.<\/p>\n

Musk\u2019s AI bot sees victories in New Jersey and Nebraska for Harris, but the former Vice President is not thought of highly enough to reverse her overall performance in 2024.<\/p>\n

\"Usha
JD Vance (pictured with his wife) is pitching to win the Electoral College and US presidency, according to AI. Credit: Alamy<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Instead, with Grok picking Minnesota and New Hampshire as very lean tilting Republican states (which feels bold in the case of Minnesota, given the problems the state has faced at the hands of the Trump administration, Vance is so firmly entrenched in), the Vice President is pitched to win the Electoral College and the US presidency by a margin of 326 to 212.<\/p>\n

Grok predicts Vance will carry every state Trump carried in 2024, along with Minnesota and New Hampshire.<\/p>\n

However, if you have ever spent any time studying Grok\u2019s responses on X (formerly\u00a0Twitter) since Musk introduced the AI bot to the social media platform, you will be well versed with its regularly less than accurate replies, not to mention the untrustworthiness of AI in general, whether it\u2019s predicting major presidential elections or trying to animate basic human emotions convincingly.<\/p>\n

So maybe don\u2019t go placing any bets just yet.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A person asked AI who would win the 2028\u00a0US\u00a0presidential election \u2013 and the answer may surprise you. AI has been predicting who the next President of the United States will … <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19,1],"tags":[2,21,20],"class_list":["post-1221","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics","category-trending","tag-breaking-news","tag-donald-trump","tag-donaldtrump"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thejoeroganpod.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1221","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thejoeroganpod.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thejoeroganpod.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thejoeroganpod.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thejoeroganpod.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1221"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thejoeroganpod.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1221\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1223,"href":"https:\/\/thejoeroganpod.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1221\/revisions\/1223"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thejoeroganpod.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1221"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thejoeroganpod.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1221"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thejoeroganpod.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1221"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}